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“Write bad things that are done to you in sand, but write the good things that happen to you on a piece of marble” – Arabic Proverb.

   

Latest Insights

We remain bullish on equities for 2018, expecting increased volatility

Weekly Investment View – 15 January 2018

We remain bullish on equities for 2018, expecting increased volatility. This edition of our report is a prelude to the exclusive FAB event taking place in Abu Dhabi this evening marking ten years in Private Banking, and also to introduce FAB’s ‘Global Investment Outlook 2018’.

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Global Macro Thoughts

Hot Topics – 10 January 2018

Global financial markets are facing a potentially more challenging environment in 2018/2019 as central banks begin to pare back monetary and fiscal stimulus and embark on the (hopefully gradual) process of balance sheet normalization. The velocity of this normalization process will be key to how global markets react. To avoid adverse reaction across the risk asset space, central banks need to convey ‘dovish tightening strategies’. Time will tell.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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Oman to print 2018’s first bond deal from the GCC

Hot Topics – 10 January 2018

The Sultanate of Oman is currently marketing a 3-tranched bond deal. FAB’s Market Insights team has provided some initial thoughts on this transaction.

Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy; Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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Cryptocurrencies - Back to the future

Hot Topics – 10 January 2018

Digital currencies have become all the rage this past year, but could another ‘bubble’ market be forming and will the technology itself change the way we do business in the future?

Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy  

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GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: Q4 2017 Review

09 January 2018

FAB’s Market Insights team published their quarterly review of GCC bond and sukuk markets for Q4 2017

Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy

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SUDAN: A Window Of Opportunity

Hot Topics – 18 December 2017

The recent lifting of US sanctions on Sudan has potentially provided the country with a window of opportunity to re-join the global community following a long period of relative isolation. However it still faces numerous economic and political challenges and these are the issues we attempt to analyse here.

Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy  

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Cruising towards year-end, with risk assets looking good

Weekly Investment View – 10 December 2017

TThe Weekly discusses last week’s main events, including US non-farm payrolls, and observes that British UK Prime Minister May still looks under great pressure. Risk markets steadied and recovered, led by the S&P. US rates will be hiked this week, but the market could be behind this curve looking out to the end of 2019. Growth in the US, the Eurozone, and even Japan is looking quite solid. The Investment Summary discusses the reasons for returning to an overweighting in US Information Technology, driven mainly by the multitude of possibilities for growth currently unfolding – and the free cashflow.

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Oil Barrels Along

Hot Topics – 9 November 2017

Those of you who have been following our oil market commentaries for the past 12 to 18 months will already be aware of our optimistic outlook for crude prices since WTI dipped briefly below US$30 a barrel back in February 2016, and which we suggested was likely to be the bottom for this latest major cycle. Since then the market has staged a pretty respectable recovery but is there room to go further?

Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa

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UAE markets intraday review

INTERVIEW – Al Arabiya TV – 18 October 2017

Mohammed Ali Yasin, the CEO of NBAD Securities, commented on the drop in DAMAC’s profits for the first 9 months of 2017. He also mentioned that investors are waiting the results of banks and Blue Chips companies, next week, before they make their next investment decision

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What’s behind the surge in trading on the Dubai Financial Market

INTERVIEW – Dubai Eye – 12 October 2017

Mohammed Ali Yasin, the CEO of NBAD Securities, Recent statements from the Minister of Economy on the country’s liquidity, along with positive news on oil prices and new IPOs coming in played an important part in October’s surge in traded volumes, said Mohammed Ali Yasin, the CEO of NBAD Securities. Until last month “there was no such catalyst to encourage people to enter the market”, he added. Even though volumes are not yet sufficient for analysts to talk about index improvement Mr Yasin remains very optimistic, partly due to expected IPOs.

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Why Saudi Arabia And Uae Earnings Are Under Pressure

INTERVIEW – Bloomberg TV – 04 October 2017

Mohammed Ali Yasin, the CEO of NBAD Securities, does not expect any surprises for the next earnings season. “The market has disappointed over the past few months” in terms of traded value and index movement, he said. Positive news that came from Saudi Arabia had boosted market performance in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, which we don’t have at the moment, according to Mr. Yasin. “The sentiment has mellowed down and investors are waiting for a catalyst to change that.”

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Bahrain prints $3bn deal - Anyone still doubting investor demand?

Hot Topics – 14 September 2017

Bahrain’s successful $3bn three-tranche sovereign transaction shows pretty clearly that there is still substantial investor appetite for GCC paper. FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team have produced a brief commentary on this deal.

Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy

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Daily Market News

Latest Global Market Reports

Bahrain‘s new bond/sukuk combo – a good test of investor appetite?

Hot Topics – 13 September 2017

Following the Kingdom of Bahrain’s announcement of initial price talk for its 3-tranche bond and sukuk transaction, FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provides a quick overview of the deal along with some relative value analysis.

Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst – Market Insights & Strategy

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Take Two - Kenya’s Presidential Election To Be Re-run

Hot Topics – 04 September 2017

Markets have begun to reflect growing concerns over the potential for extended political turbulence in Kenya, after the country’s High Court declared the latest Presidential election’s results invalid and ordered fresh elections be held within the next two months, due to ‘illegalities’ around the electronic transmission of paper results. We expect pressure on Kenyan assets to continue in the near term, at least until the poll has been re-run.

Glenn Wepener, Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa

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Other Regional and Sector Insights

A Quieter Start

Weekly Fixed Income Comment – 13 November 2017

So now we know how the seventh innings started: on a soft note. The regional news centring on Saudi Arabia obviously had an impact on our markets last week but was also a factor in the weaker credit markets that we saw globally, along with focal points in the US high yield markets centred on some of the companies in that universe and outflows from the(...)

Ian Clarke, Head of Fixed Income Fund Management

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Mena Equity Commentary

Weekly Equity Comment – 06 November 2017

The GCC region remains volatile and continues to be impacted on the macro and political front. Last week the IMF updated its regional outlook for the Middle East, although growth concerns remain, IMF forecasts highlight fiscal initiatives with oil break-evens mostly falling. Kuwait remains best positioned in the current environment(...)

Saleem Khokhar, Head of Equities Fund Management

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Tight mortgage lending rules may have an impact on real estate sector

INTERVIEW – Al Arabiya – 28 September 2017

(ARABIC CONTENT) Mohammed Ali Yasin, the CEO of NBAD Securities comments on some banks’ request for the UAE Central Bank to reduce constraints on mortgage lending.
After late September’s low traded volumes, Mr. Yasin also expects October to be a potentially better month for GCC equities, thanks to blue chip stocks.

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Bullish euro/bearish dollar trend to continue?

The Bigger Picture – 05 September 2017

Investors should not get too excited about short-run cyclical improvements in the Eurozone when the degree of required structural change remains substantial. The dollar has already discounted much Trump-related bad news for the time being, hence could easily bounce from current levels, limiting euro upside. We have revised our expected six-month trading range to $1.1200-1.2500 (from $1.0500-1.1700 previously).

Alain Marckus, FAB’s Director of Investment Strategy - Global Asset Management

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