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Latest Insights

EM assets have discounted trade war talk, but not its effects

Weekly Investment View – 17 September 2018

Emerging markets, particularly Asia, have suffered a lot as talk of more US tariffs against China grew louder. For all the losses, the true cost of these tariffs is yet to be embedded in the value of EM stocks

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FAB global macro strategy outlook

INTERVIEW – CNBC TV – 06 September 2018

Global markets seem set to maintain a near-term cautious tone, led by persistent weakness and volatility in EM and Asian risk. With Turkey and Argentina still very much center-stage in terms of investor concerns, thus far though we have seen little evidence of broader contagion. In a recent interview with CNBC, FAB Macro Strategist Simon Ballard discussed the current outlook for global markets and EM in particular and also offered his current analysis of the global trade polemic which is weighing on market sentiment.

Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Macro Strategist

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Commenting on the banking sector mergers in Abu Dhabi

INTERVIEW – Al Arabiya TV – 05 September 2018

Mr. Mohammed Ali Yasin , the Chief Executive Officer Of FAB Securities LLC commented during his interview with Al-Arabiya TV on the new three banks merger , where he sees that this merger will support the economic growth in UAE and it could create a major Financial Institution in the Mena Region

Mohammed Ali Yasin , the FABS CEO

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UAE Real Estate Update:Remaining Selective as Macro Backdrop Firms

Macro Strategy – 16 August 2018

Further to our analysis of the UAE real estate market entitled ‘Foundations of Optimism’ published back in April, we have recently reviewed 1H 2018 data. While the direction of travel for residential and commercial property (sales and rental) prices in 2018 remains downward, data suggests that the pace of weakening is steadily slowing. Therefore, while the regional macro backdrop is improving, the sentiment toward UAE real estate seems set to remain selectively optimistic. We believe that property prices and yields may still have room to weaken further with supply the greatest threat to sector performance, but the latest data does suggest that the pace of decline is slowing.  

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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China & Arabia – The Return of the Silk Road

Hot topics – 07 August 2018

In this paper we focus primarily on China’s ancient and modern links with the Middle East and discuss the potential outcome the resumption of this mega-project could have on the region and beyond.

Glenn Wepener, Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy

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Exploring the correlation between oil and inflation

Macro Strategy – 06 August 2018

The direction of the oil price tends to be correlated to underlying macroeconomic conditions. Indeed, U.S. inflation data and the oil price over the past 13 years have shown visible positive correlation. However, this positive correlation has weakened and turned negative over the past couple of months, a potential warning sign of either of a near-term reversal in economic growth optimism or renewed upside in the oil price. In this analysis, we consider both scenarios and the ramifications they carry for MENA/GCC markets.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Opportunities in the GCC bonds market

GCC Fixed Income Market - 01 August 2018

As GCC member states continue their economic diversification away from petrochemicals, so the region has emerged as an active issuer in the international bond markets. In a recent interview with Thomson Reuters television, Chavan Bhogaita, head of Market Insights & Strategy, discusses this funding evolution as well our thoughts on the current pressures surrounding Bahrain and, finally, the macro fundamental outlook for bond issuance in the GCC region.

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Bloomberg TV Macro Strategy Interview

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 29 July 2018

In a recent interview with Bloomberg television, FAB's macro strategist discusses a broad range of global macro issues with a Middle Eastern context. From a preview to this week's FOMC rate decision and statement, to Bank of Japan policy via tech sector outlook and the corporate earnings environment, Simon discusses many of the key issues currently driving market sentiment.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Higher oil prices are good for the Gulf

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 23 July 2018

In a recent interview on CNBC Television, Simon Ballard, FAB Global Markets’ macro strategist discusses the outlook for the corporate earnings season and the potential impact of trade tensions. Simon also discusses the macro outlook for the GCC region in the context of the recent rise in the oil price.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Macro Strategy: Antiquated nature of U.S. 2s/10s yield curve

Macro Strategy – 19 July 2018

The shape of a yield curve has traditionally been viewed as a reflection of the macro outlook for that particular economy. An upward sloping, positive yield curve, where long-end rates exceed front end yields, suggests positive economic growth, improving economic conditions and rising future inflation expectations. Conversely, a flat – or even inverted – yield curve where long-end rates offer little, if any, premium, over short-dated yields is generally seen as reflecting overly tight monetary conditions and consequently is often seen as a precursor to recessionary risk.

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Oil Market Update "Push & Pull"

Hot topics – 16 July 2018

The past 12 months have seen crude maintain its bullish mood and this was underlined when Brent tested the US$80 a barrel mark in May this year. Admittedly we have seen a minor technical retracement since then, but the fundamental and geopolitical environment overall still appears supportive for prices going forward. In this report we discuss how much further potential upside is possible in the near to medium term and what factors, both bullish and bearish should one keep an eye on.

Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst

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Issuance of FIxed income in Saudi and the GCC. Also, the Abraaj capital saga

INTERVIEW – Bloomberg TV – 11 July 2018

Saudi Arabia is asking banks to pitch for roles on a potential dollar-denominated Islamic bond sale, people with knowledge of the matter said. Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief executive officer of FAB Securities, weighs in on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Middle East." He also talks about Abraaj, the private equity firm that’s undergoing a court-supervised restructuring

Mohammed Ali Yasin , the FABS CEO

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