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All German Risk is Not Made Equal

Macro Strategy – 20 June 2018

While risk pricing across the three entities of the German sovereign, Volkswagen and Porsche CDS contracts may have all enjoyed the same direction of travel through much of last year, the relative relationship has been significantly different over the first 6 months of 2018. As a result, investors in German risk will have been rewarded for a much more discerning approach to risk/reward dynamics this year. For those that now anticipate deeper deterioration in the VW scandal or the German political outlook over the coming months, we would suggest monitoring the Porsche 5Y CDS contract and its potential to play catch up.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Bahrain: Battered but not broken

Hot topics – 11 June 2018

With Bahrain’s current fiscal situation under the media spotlight recently, we conducted an analysis of the issue and conclude that the economic picture may not be as bad as it appears on the surface.

Chavan Bhogaita, Managing Director & Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst

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The Global Interest Rate Outlook

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 10 June 2018

What are the implications of a rising rate environment in the U.S. and Europe for GCC markets? In our inaugural video interview series, moderated by Thomson Reuters, Simon Ballard, Executive Director and Macro Strategist in First Abu Dhabi Bank’s Global Markets team discusses the outlook for financial markets and the implications of tighter monetary policy for both issuers and investors in the GCC region. 

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The GCC - Facts & Figures

06 June 2018

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Glenn Wepener, Geopolitical Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Mohamed Al Shamsi, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets

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How do we stack up against the others?

FAB vs Peer Banks– 17 May 2018

In this periodic report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team analyses how FAB compares versus its main peer banks in the GCC as well as Western and Eastern parts of the world. The report shows how these banks stack up against each other on various factual metrics such as credit ratings, CDS spread, capital adequacy, return on equity, return on assets, etc.

Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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Eurozone PMI data offers asset allocation strategy ahead of ECB QE withdrawal

Macro Strategy and Economic - 03 May 2018

European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released Wednesday (May 2) should serve as a useful reminder as to where embedded European macroeconomic risks lie. The numbers highlight to us those geographies in the sovereign spectrum that may have enjoyed the greatest benefit of monetary repression, and as such may now be at greatest risk of price corrections over the coming months. Furthermore, data released Thursday for UAE and Saudi Arabia PMIs, would seem to highlight the relative inherent strength of GCC credit when compared alongside Europe.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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UAE Real Estate ‘‘Foundations for Optimism’

Hot Topics – 19 April 2018

In our latest review of UAE real estate, “Foundations for Optimism” we find that a soft, but nonetheless cautiously optimistic tone continues to characterize the UAE property market. After the correction seen in real estate prices during 2014/2015 the market is now showing some encouraging signs of underlying price support, although with evidence of extensive incentives being used by landlords to retain incumbent tenants or entice new ones, market conditions are still far from strong.

Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: Q1 2018 Review

11 April 2018

GCC bond and sukuk markets have been very active indeed over Q1 2018, especially with new issues coming from issuers in this region, and this momentum looks set to continue into Q2. In this report our Market Insights & Strategy team provide a quick overview of the market and our thoughts on some of the key drivers.

Rakesh Sahu – Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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India & the UAE ‘Trading Places’

Hot Topics – 05 April 2018

Trading between the UAE and India go back centuries. In this piece we look briefly at the UAE’s more modern history and how its relations with India became so intertwined.

Glenn Wepener - Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy 

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Bahrain’s first $ debt issue of 2018, but perhaps not the last…

Hot Topics – 28 March 2018

The Kingdom of Bahrain is in the market with its first deal of 2018, a 7.5 year sukuk transaction. Given the country’s budget deficit, recent ratings downgrades, etc, this sukuk deal is one that needs to succeed. Furthermore, given the magnitude of the country’s funding requirements, we don’t see today’s deal as being the Kingdom’s only transaction for 2018 and hence expect further issuance during the year. Watch this space….

Rakesh Sahu – Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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Aldar + Emaar: There’s more to it than a JV

Hot Topics – 21 March 2018

The announcement of a joint venture between two of the UAE’s leading property developers - Aldar and Emaar – is more significant than may first meet the eye. We believe the collaboration is of huge strategic importance to Abu Dhabi, Dubai and the country as a whole

Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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Global Remittances - A Brief Overview

Hot Topics – 18 March 2018

Global remittances have undergone substantial transformation and growth over the past 50 years, and furthermore it is likely that this transformation will be even more pronounced in the coming years as a result of technological advances. In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provides a broad overview of Global Remittances and highlights some of the key factors aspects of this market.

Mohamed Ali Al Shamsi, Market Insights & Strategy

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Balancing Politics with Macro and Rates

Macro Strategy and Economic Update - 14 March 2018

Our latest macro strategy missive, in which we analyse and discuss the recent political developments in the U.S. alongside the OECD’s update of its global growth projections.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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Saudi Arabia - Shifting Sands

Hot Topics – 12 March 2018

There is an ancient Arabic proverb which literally translated into English reads: “You cannot change the wind, but you can adjust the sail.”Although having originated a long time ago it could still be used today to highlight Saudi Arabia’s recently unveiled and unprecedented program of social and economic change. While foreign media headlines and investors may currently be focused on the discussion over where and when Aramco will be listed, other equally important events are either already underway or due to take place this year, thus we try and discuss these in the following piece.

Glenn Wepener -Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst, Middle East & Africa

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ECB Preview: Does Draghi Believe in Goldilocks?

Hot Topics – 08 March 2018

ECB president Draghi, ever the wordsmith, now needs to tread a very delicate line between conveying the idea of sustainable Eurozone growth and scaring investors with an overly optimistic and hawkish rhetoric. The market hope is now that he shows a conviction in a Goldilocks Eurozone economy that is now running neither ‘too hot’ nor ‘too cold’.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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Sharjah in Eurobond market for a 10-year sukuk deal

GCC Fixed Income Market – 06 March 2018

Having been away from the primary market for almost a year, the Emirate of Sharjah is currently marketing a 10-year sukuk transaction. FAB’s market insights team provides some initial thoughts on this deal in this report

Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy

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MENA and Global Markets Publications