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GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: 9M 2018

17 October 2018

Our quarterly review of GCC bond and sukuk markets provides a quick snapshot of new issuance, secondary market performance, and some key stories such as the Bahrain sovereign situation - all in a chart book format.

Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
 

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Ethiopia: An East African ‘Renaissance’ Story

Hot topics –16 October 2018

Ethiopia’s economic growth continues to be impressive and the initial steps taken by the country’s young and energetic Prime Minister have already borne fruit both internally and externally. However some political and economic challenges remain which we discuss within our latest review of the country.

Glenn Wepener
Executive Director & Geopolitical Analyst Middle East & Africa

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Brexit: What next? We try to demystify the polemic

Hot topics –25 September 2018

The Brexit process, or lack thereof, in the U.K. is currently raising more questions among investors than it is answering. What we do know is that the U.K. will exit the EU on March 29th 2019, with or without a ‘deal’. If there is a ‘deal’ then a two year transition period will follow for settling all the minutiae. With the deadline for reaching a deal between Westminster and Brussels – the need to agree terms on the future trading, economic and political relationship between the two regions – becoming ever closer, investors want clarity. In this latest research paper, we attempt to offer some answers to investors’ current concerns and questions over Brexit, as well as to offer some clarity on where the Brexit story and the direction of U.K. risk sentiment may go from here.

Simon Ballard
Executive Director & Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy 

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FAB global macro strategy outlook

INTERVIEW – CNBC TV – 06 September 2018

Global markets seem set to maintain a near-term cautious tone, led by persistent weakness and volatility in EM and Asian risk. With Turkey and Argentina still very much center-stage in terms of investor concerns, thus far though we have seen little evidence of broader contagion. In a recent interview with CNBC, FAB Macro Strategist Simon Ballard discussed the current outlook for global markets and EM in particular and also offered his current analysis of the global trade polemic which is weighing on market sentiment.

Simon Ballard, Executive Director & Macro Strategist

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UAE Real Estate Update:Remaining Selective as Macro Backdrop Firms

Macro Strategy – 16 August 2018

Further to our analysis of the UAE real estate market entitled ‘Foundations of Optimism’ published back in April, we have recently reviewed 1H 2018 data. While the direction of travel for residential and commercial property (sales and rental) prices in 2018 remains downward, data suggests that the pace of weakening is steadily slowing. Therefore, while the regional macro backdrop is improving, the sentiment toward UAE real estate seems set to remain selectively optimistic. We believe that property prices and yields may still have room to weaken further with supply the greatest threat to sector performance, but the latest data does suggest that the pace of decline is slowing.  

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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China & Arabia – The Return of the Silk Road

Hot topics – 07 August 2018

In this paper we focus primarily on China’s ancient and modern links with the Middle East and discuss the potential outcome the resumption of this mega-project could have on the region and beyond.

Glenn Wepener, Executive Director, Market Insights & Strategy

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Exploring the correlation between oil and inflation

Macro Strategy – 06 August 2018

The direction of the oil price tends to be correlated to underlying macroeconomic conditions. Indeed, U.S. inflation data and the oil price over the past 13 years have shown visible positive correlation. However, this positive correlation has weakened and turned negative over the past couple of months, a potential warning sign of either of a near-term reversal in economic growth optimism or renewed upside in the oil price. In this analysis, we consider both scenarios and the ramifications they carry for MENA/GCC markets.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Opportunities in the GCC bonds market

GCC Fixed Income Market - 01 August 2018

As GCC member states continue their economic diversification away from petrochemicals, so the region has emerged as an active issuer in the international bond markets. In a recent interview with Thomson Reuters television, Chavan Bhogaita, head of Market Insights & Strategy, discusses this funding evolution as well our thoughts on the current pressures surrounding Bahrain and, finally, the macro fundamental outlook for bond issuance in the GCC region.

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Bloomberg TV Macro Strategy Interview

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 29 July 2018

In a recent interview with Bloomberg television, FAB's macro strategist discusses a broad range of global macro issues with a Middle Eastern context. From a preview to this week's FOMC rate decision and statement, to Bank of Japan policy via tech sector outlook and the corporate earnings environment, Simon discusses many of the key issues currently driving market sentiment.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Higher oil prices are good for the Gulf

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 23 July 2018

In a recent interview on CNBC Television, Simon Ballard, FAB Global Markets’ macro strategist discusses the outlook for the corporate earnings season and the potential impact of trade tensions. Simon also discusses the macro outlook for the GCC region in the context of the recent rise in the oil price.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Trade tensions will have a negative impact on global growth

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 22 July 2018

In a recent interview on CNBC Television, Simon Ballard, FAB Global Markets’ macro strategist discusses the global macro outlook in the context of current trade tensions. The discussion also included a prelude to the week’s macroeconomics data and European Central Bank meeting.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Macro Strategy: Antiquated nature of U.S. 2s/10s yield curve

Macro Strategy – 19 July 2018

The shape of a yield curve has traditionally been viewed as a reflection of the macro outlook for that particular economy. An upward sloping, positive yield curve, where long-end rates exceed front end yields, suggests positive economic growth, improving economic conditions and rising future inflation expectations. Conversely, a flat – or even inverted – yield curve where long-end rates offer little, if any, premium, over short-dated yields is generally seen as reflecting overly tight monetary conditions and consequently is often seen as a precursor to recessionary risk.

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Oil Market Update "Push & Pull"

Hot topics – 16 July 2018

The past 12 months have seen crude maintain its bullish mood and this was underlined when Brent tested the US$80 a barrel mark in May this year. Admittedly we have seen a minor technical retracement since then, but the fundamental and geopolitical environment overall still appears supportive for prices going forward. In this report we discuss how much further potential upside is possible in the near to medium term and what factors, both bullish and bearish should one keep an eye on.

Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst

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GCC Fixed Income - 1H 2018 Chart book

04 July 2018

Our quarterly review of GCC bond and sukuk markets provides a quick snapshot of new issuance, secondary market performance, and some key stories such as the Bahrain sovereign situation - all in a chart book format.

Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy
 

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All German Risk is Not Made Equal

Macro Strategy – 20 June 2018

While risk pricing across the three entities of the German sovereign, Volkswagen and Porsche CDS contracts may have all enjoyed the same direction of travel through much of last year, the relative relationship has been significantly different over the first 6 months of 2018. As a result, investors in German risk will have been rewarded for a much more discerning approach to risk/reward dynamics this year. For those that now anticipate deeper deterioration in the VW scandal or the German political outlook over the coming months, we would suggest monitoring the Porsche 5Y CDS contract and its potential to play catch up.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

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Bahrain: Battered but not broken

Hot topics – 11 June 2018

With Bahrain’s current fiscal situation under the media spotlight recently, we conducted an analysis of the issue and conclude that the economic picture may not be as bad as it appears on the surface.

Chavan Bhogaita, Managing Director & Head of Market Insights & Strategy
Glenn Wepener, Exec. Director & Geopolitical Analyst
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst

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The Global Interest Rate Outlook

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 10 June 2018

What are the implications of a rising rate environment in the U.S. and Europe for GCC markets? In our inaugural video interview series, moderated by Thomson Reuters, Simon Ballard, Executive Director and Macro Strategist in First Abu Dhabi Bank’s Global Markets team discusses the outlook for financial markets and the implications of tighter monetary policy for both issuers and investors in the GCC region. 

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The GCC - Facts & Figures

06 June 2018

In this report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team provide a very simple overview of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) from a macro and markets perspective. The report covers an economic snapshot of the region, our outlook on oil, and a summary of the GCC FX and rates market.

Glenn Wepener, Geopolitical Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Mohamed Al Shamsi, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy, FAB Global Markets

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How do we stack up against the others?

FAB vs Peer Banks– 17 May 2018

In this periodic report FAB’s Market Insights & Strategy team analyses how FAB compares versus its main peer banks in the GCC as well as Western and Eastern parts of the world. The report shows how these banks stack up against each other on various factual metrics such as credit ratings, CDS spread, capital adequacy, return on equity, return on assets, etc.

Rakesh Sahu, Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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Eurozone PMI data offers asset allocation strategy ahead of ECB QE withdrawal

Macro Strategy and Economic - 03 May 2018

European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released Wednesday (May 2) should serve as a useful reminder as to where embedded European macroeconomic risks lie. The numbers highlight to us those geographies in the sovereign spectrum that may have enjoyed the greatest benefit of monetary repression, and as such may now be at greatest risk of price corrections over the coming months. Furthermore, data released Thursday for UAE and Saudi Arabia PMIs, would seem to highlight the relative inherent strength of GCC credit when compared alongside Europe.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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UAE Real Estate ‘‘Foundations for Optimism’

Hot Topics – 19 April 2018

In our latest review of UAE real estate, “Foundations for Optimism” we find that a soft, but nonetheless cautiously optimistic tone continues to characterize the UAE property market. After the correction seen in real estate prices during 2014/2015 the market is now showing some encouraging signs of underlying price support, although with evidence of extensive incentives being used by landlords to retain incumbent tenants or entice new ones, market conditions are still far from strong.

Simon Ballard, Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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GCC Fixed Income Chart Book: Q1 2018 Review

11 April 2018

GCC bond and sukuk markets have been very active indeed over Q1 2018, especially with new issues coming from issuers in this region, and this momentum looks set to continue into Q2. In this report our Market Insights & Strategy team provide a quick overview of the market and our thoughts on some of the key drivers.

Rakesh Sahu – Analyst, Market Insights & Strategy
Chavan Bhogaita, MD & Head of Market Insights & Strategy

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MENA and Global Markets Publications