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The Global Interest Rate Outlook

Macro Strategy & Economic Update - 10 June 2018

What are the implications of a rising rate environment in the U.S. and Europe for GCC markets? In our inaugural video interview series, moderated by Thomson Reuters, Simon Ballard, Executive Director and Macro Strategist in First Abu Dhabi Bank’s Global Markets team discusses the outlook for financial markets and the implications of tighter monetary policy for both issuers and investors in the GCC region. 

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Eurozone PMI data offers asset allocation strategy ahead of ECB QE withdrawal

Macro Strategy and Economic - 03 May 2018

European Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data released Wednesday (May 2) should serve as a useful reminder as to where embedded European macroeconomic risks lie. The numbers highlight to us those geographies in the sovereign spectrum that may have enjoyed the greatest benefit of monetary repression, and as such may now be at greatest risk of price corrections over the coming months. Furthermore, data released Thursday for UAE and Saudi Arabia PMIs, would seem to highlight the relative inherent strength of GCC credit when compared alongside Europe.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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Balancing Politics with Macro and Rates

Macro Strategy and Economic Update - 14 March 2018

Our latest macro strategy missive, in which we analyse and discuss the recent political developments in the U.S. alongside the OECD’s update of its global growth projections.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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FOMC Preview When words do speak louder than actions

31 January 2018

This evening’s FOMC rate announcement in the U.S. will be Janet Yellen’s last as Fed Chair. She will not want to shock the market before leaving office and Fed funds futures pricing suggests minimal chance of a rate move. Far more important will be the tone of Yellen’s accompanying statement and it is this that the bond market will make any reaction to, in the context of an already higher bias to the U.S. yield curve.
Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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World Economic Forum 2018; What to Watch For

Macro Strategy and Economic Update - 22 January 2018

The annual 4-day World Economic Forum (WEF) begins in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland tomorrow (January 23) and investors will be watching carefully for market-moving headlines. With India’s Prime Minister Modi and US President Trump expected to book-end the proceedings, and with a diverse range of debates in between, there should be plenty to interest the market. In this brief overview we highlight what we believe will be the key areas to watch.

Simon Ballard - Macro Strategist, Market Insights & Strategy

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UAE Banking Review 2016

MENA Economic Reports - 15 December 2016

In October 2016, loans reached AED1,463 billion (USD 397.3bn), up 5.83% y-o-y. Personal loans accounted for 30% of total loan followed by construction loans (17.43%). Deposits reached AED1,503bn (4.72% y-o-y). Government deposits decreased to AED 158bn and constituted 10.7% of total deposits (…)

Alp Eke, Senior Economist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst

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UAE Real Estate Review - 2016 Q3

MENA Economic Reports - 12 December 2016

By end of 2016, residential units are expected to reach up to 480,000. This will likely keep the pressure on prices. In September 2016, monthly average listed property sales prices in Dubai declined to AED 1,150 /sqf while Abu Dhabi ones remained the same at AED 1,340/sqf.

Alp Eke, Senior Economist
Rakesh Sahu, Analyst

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Macro Strategy & Economic Reports